Dear Winnipeg

Dear Winnipeg,

A new city report has come out to try to convince us that a road extension costing nearly a billion dollars is worth it. Nope, this isn’t for the widening of Kenaston Blvd I’ve already talked about. This is a different billion-dollar road extension: the one to extend Chief Peguis Trail westward to “unlock” new land for development. (And for the non-Winnipeggers reading, despite its name, it’s not a trail in any sense of the word. It’s just a regular road.)

The report is 72 pages long, and it’s full of numbers and charts and tables, all trying to convince us that this is something we should invest in as a city. After all, according to the report, it will “only” take 36 years for it to break even, after which it will leave us with a $1.8 Billion cumulative surplus at the end of 75 years, giving it a Net Present Value of $167 million and an internal rate of return of 7.1%.

It all sounds very impressive. Especially the part about being able to predict 75 years into the future with any accuracy. To be honest, I’ll be very upset if we don’t have flying cars that fold up into briefcases by then.

It becomes less impressive when we read the report’s caveats on pages 62 and 63, like the admission that $1.8 Billion over 75 years is actually a pretty marginal return (less than a single year’s revenue over three generations!), or the fact that the cost of eventual road replacement isn’t even factored into the analysis. Yikes.

But for all the work that went into this report, there’s really only one paragraph that’s important. It says:

This financial analysis is highly sensitive to the assumed rate of increase in property tax. The current rate of 3.5%, as set by the current council, is assumed. Sensitivity analysis indicates a rate of 2.48% is the minimum viable rate to break even after 75 years, as increases below this will result in a deficit. Between 1990 and 2023, property taxes have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 1.98%, which would be insufficient to financially sustain the development under consideration.

— Chief Peguis Trail Extension: Financial and Economic Impact Analysis Report, page 43

Let me translate that for you. It says that for this investment to break even in 36 years, we have to promise to keep increasing our taxes by 3.5% every year forever. If we only raise them by 2.5% annually, it will take 75 years for it to break even. Annual tax increases of less than that, and it will never break even.

Understand what we’re talking about here. It means that unless the rest of the city is willing to pay more and more taxes every year forever, this road extension, and the subsequent development it enables, will never break even.

This development does not pay for itself. We will be subsidizing it forever.

Why would we ever agree to that?

Building this is going to cause our taxes to increase. And if we don’t increase them, we’ll be forced to make it up in cuts to services, and deferred maintenance on the infrastructure we already own, eventually leading to their closure.

The more we grow, the higher our taxes have to be… so why grow at all?

But like I’ve said before, if growth is expensive, you’re doing it wrong. And we’ve been doing it wrong for over eighty years, not just in Winnipeg, but throughout North America.

Now, if this was the only time we’d attempted this, it might not be so bad. But, just like everywhere else, this is how we’ve been growing our city since before almost all of us have been alive. Unfortunately, you can only do that for so long before it catches up with you.

And it has caught up with us.

We’re closing bridges and pools. We can’t keep up with staffing and services. We’re short billions of dollars for necessary sewage treatment plant work. And all this despite increasing property taxes, and an upcoming water rate hike that has been described as “severe” by at least one city councillor. It should be clear that the more we grow this way, the poorer we become as a city.

And yet, I remain hopeful about the future.

When I started writing this blog in 2018, I was just trying to educate my fellow Winnipeggers on the financial repercussions of our choices as a city. Today, there are more of you reading this than ever. And not only in Winnipeg, but throughout Canada and the US. In fact, there are more of you from elsewhere now than from Winnipeg.

And that’s really cool. That tells me that there’s a real hunger for more financial knowledge from all kinds of people in all kinds of cities and towns in North America (and beyond!). People everywhere care about their city, and they want to make sure it’ll be able to deliver services not just today or tomorrow, but every day, forever.

So when the folks at Great Plains Press approached me last summer with their idea for a new book series, The City Project, I was immediately sold on the potential impact it could have. Well, yadda, yadda, yadda… I have a book coming out this spring!

The City Project series is about bringing all people into the conversation about building thriving, sustainable cities. Written in plain language, and short enough to be read in an afternoon — kind of like a TED talk, but in book form — it’s for citizens, media, city staff, council members, academics, everyone!

All that to say, I wrote a book to help people understand city finances, and I promise you, it’ll be the most fun you’ll ever have reading about city finance. And yes, I recognize that’s a low bar. But importantly, I’m hoping anyone who reads it will come away with a much deeper understanding of how we need to grow our cities going forward, if we want them to be financially sustainable.

But I wouldn’t expect you to take my word for it. So I asked a few people for whom I have a tremendous amount of respect, if they’d be willing to read the book and provide a few comments. They were gracious enough to accept. Here’s what they had to say:

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A powerful and much-needed wake-up call
“If you’ve ever wondered why your city keeps cutting services while your taxes keep rising, this book is for you. With sharp analysis and a touch of humor, Mitch unpacks the financial realities behind failing infrastructure and declining city budgets. A powerful and much-needed wake-up call.”

— Charles Marohn, Founder and President of Strong Towns

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A must-read for anyone who cares about the future of our cities
“In this delightful read, Michel masterfully tackles the world of municipal finances with humor, adventure, and a well-researched case study. With a storytelling approach that makes complex financial concepts both accessible and engaging, this book is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future of our cities and towns.

From practitioners and researchers to students, council members, and city administrators—not to mention the taxpayers who ultimately shape their communities—this book offers valuable insights for all. Michel’s deep knowledge and passion for our shared local assets and infrastructure shine through, making this both an informative and entertaining journey. Most importantly, it leaves readers with clear, optimistic steps to build thriving, financially sustainable communities for decades to come.”

— Stephanie Ortynsky, PhD, Public Policy Researcher, Instructor & Yorkton SK City Councillor

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Lucid, illuminating, empowering
“After more than 20 years in the municipal sector both as Councillor and now as Chief Administrative Officer, I have come to the conclusion that something is fundamentally wrong with how we run our municipalities. In prose that is lucid, illuminating, empowering, and chuckle-inducing, Michel Durand-Wood has put his finger on the problem.

Cutting through the complexity and jargon of municipal finance, Michel builds our understanding of why our cities and communities struggle and shows us how we can begin to turn this trend around.

Every citizen who loves their community and wants to see it thrive should read this book. Every elected official who has campaigned on ‘keeping taxes affordable’ or ‘improving services’ should memorize it.”

— Duane Nicol, CAO, City of Selkirk MB

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A mandatory read for any voting citizen
“With levity and comedic prose providing tasting notes similar to Douglas Adams’ Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Michel provides what should be a mandatory read for any voting citizen. While the prose may be funny, the content is anything but.

Auto-dependent suburban sprawl is driving municipalities like yours and mine towards financial ruin. It is just as unaffordable for residents as it is for city budgets. The good news is, we have a solution, and together we will build stronger communities, prosper economically and afford a great city for everyone forever.”

— Michael Janz, Edmonton AB City Councillor & Three-term public school trustee

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An essential “municipal finance 101”
“If you’re fighting for more bike lanes, better buses, and beautiful parks in your city, it all starts with understanding the nuts and bolts of municipal finance. If you want to make a difference at city hall but are dissuaded by the inaccessible budget documents, this book breaks it all down so that anyone can take meaningful action in their communities. Budgets talk, and fortunately for us, Michel is here to translate them for us, helping make municipal finance accessible to anyone and keeping the reader engaged from start to finish. An essential “municipal finance 101” for anyone who wants to make their city a better place to live.”

— Nicole Roach, Chair, Women in Urbanism Canada

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Wow, I know. I have to admit that when these came in, I had a mild panic that the publisher had accidentally sent them someone else’s book. But they assure me that is not the case.

Bottom line, I’m hoping this book will be useful to you in making all our cities more financially sustainable. And I need your help to get this book into as many hands (and brains) as possible. If you want to help, here’s what you can do:

1. Pre-order the book: If you’re able, pre-ordering the book is a super impactful way to help. It should be available anywhere you buy books (please support local bookstores whenever possible), but here are some links in case you don’t know where to start. If you’re in Canada, the book releases on May 20th, 2025:

If you’re in the US or the UK, the book releases on June 24th, 2025:

UK links:

Looking to do a bulk buy of 15+ books for your city council, community group, advocacy organization, book club, or to use as a prop in your Zoom background? Reach out to Great Plains Press and they’ll hook you up!

2. Reserve the book at your public library: If you’re in Winnipeg, here’s the link to the book at the Winnipeg Public Library. If you’re somewhere else, request it from your own city, town or school library!

3. Invite me to your city: Want me to come do a talk in your city? Contact Angeline at Great Plains Press or myself (or both!), and let’s make it happen!

4. Suggest/have me as a guest for an interview: Have a fave urbanist/literary/financial/political/other podcast, YouTube channel, blog, radio show, magazine or newspaper? Let them know you’d like to see/hear me interviewed on it. And if you run your own podcast, YouTube channel, blog, radio show, magazine or newspaper, contact Angeline at Great Plains Press or myself (or both!). I’d be happy to chat!

5. Tell your friends and family: Seriously, I can’t be the only weirdo who talks about city finance at Sunday dinner with family, around the water cooler with coworkers, after the curling game with friends, at the grocery store with the clerk, while waiting for the bus with strangers, or as a bedtime story with my kids… right?

6. Share it on the interwebs: I’ve heard social media is all the rage these days. Pick your favourite social medium (may I suggest… um, all of them?), compose your pithiest message about how everyone should read this book, and send it out! Here are some easy share buttons to get you started:

If you’re feeling up to it, go ahead and do more than one of these. It’s not strictly necessary, but I’d really appreciate it. And if you’re a city finance superhero, then I dare you to do all of them! Let me know if you do so I can thank you personally.

Thanks for working to change the world with me, folks! Let’s make some noise.

Love,

Elmwood Guy